Gartner, MRG Release IPTV Prediction Reports

The new IPTV (News - Alert) Global Forecast 2006-2009 from Multimedia Research Group, Inc. reveals what report authors are calling “some noteworthy developments” since the last IPTV Forecast in September 2005.

Those developments include subscriber rolls predicted to grow from 4.3 million to 36.8 million in 2005-2009; and system revenue growth from $740 million to $4.3 billion in 2005-2009.

Reasons behind the developments include the fact that Europe is surging ahead with a large number of strong IPTV deployments that include France Telecom, Free, Neuf in France, Telefonica in Spain, FastWeb in Italy, and a number of strong competitive offerings in Scandinavia.

Coincidentally Gartner Group has also recently released a report on Western European IPTV. The number of households subscribing to Television via Internet Protocol services offered by telecom carriers in Western Europe will reach 3.3 million this year and 16.7 million in 2010, according to Gartner forecasts from.

Despite the robust growth in users, Gartner said that IPTV will struggle over the next five years to become a mainstream revenue opportunity for telecom carriers. Competing against entrenched Pay TV and free-to-air terrestrial TV providers who deliver good quality programming for free, carriers will resort to low priced services and bundles to drive initial subscriber uptake.

As a result, Gartner says, carriers’ IPTV revenue in Western Europe during the period will grow from 336 million euros in 2006 to only 3 billion euros by 2010.

Susan Richardson, principal research analyst at Gartner says those who delay too long “will risk undermining their ability to be long term key players in the consumer infotainment communications business.”

Richardson has officially been fined $5.00 by this reporter for using “infotainment” non-ironically.

France is currently way ahead of other markets in terms of IPTV adoption, Gartner found, predicting that by the end of 2006, almost half of Western Europe’s IPTV subscribers will be based in France -- a total of 1.7 million generating revenues of 141 million euros. Gartner attributes IPTV’s success in France to an aggressive (low entry price) push from competitive players including Free and Neuf as well as France Telecom, combined with the fact that all the major Pay TV services are willing to embrace new distribution channels.

The MRG report pointed to what it called “uncertainties in large carriers in North America and Asia” as holding the forecasts for these regions down.

According to the report Europe should be the strongest IPTV market through 2009, with Asia catching up by the end of the forecast period. The number of IP TV set-top boxes will dominate the capital spending for IPTV services and account for two-thirds of (cap-ex) spending, if the report’s prognosis holds true.

In forecasting four major regions and seven product/service categories, this forecast includes growth projections (by region) of the top 65 percent Service Providers in 2006 -2009.

The report also identifies risks and opportunities for IPTV vendors and SPs, including the uncertainly Mergers and Acquisitions among suppliers will have on smaller companies.

The report says that since Europe offers the most varied opportunities for IPTV vendors, unique opportunities are offered by the large, incumbent carriers, the competitive carriers, and the Eastern European carriers.

David Sims is contributing editor for TMCnet. For more articles please visit David Sims' columnist page.

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